Back in the days when broadcast television first saw the light of day (in 1936) there was no alternative but to disseminate programs using the electromagnetic spectrum. This meant powerful transmitters were deployed allow TV receivers within their range to receive programs using an antenna.
Frequencies above about 30MHz were considered at the time less useful than lower frequencies as they were generally less able to be reflected by the ionosphere and therefore travel long distances. So broadcasters were able to use these frequencies without any other services competing for spectrum. In the UK the 405 line transmissions were first broadcast on channel 1 which had a vision carrier frequency of 45MHz.
As television expanded in the 1950s, spectrum was set aside for TV broadcasters exclusive use and occupied channels in what was known as Band I (41 - 66 MHz) and Band III (176 - 211 MHz). The 5MHz wide channels used for 405 line transmissions (8MHz for 625 line) could easily be accommodated by these carrier frequencies.
At the time the spectrum that was allocated to TV broadcasters was considered to be at the boundaries of what receiver technology could achieve (remember - using thermionic valves) and was not hotly contested by other potential users. Broadcasters were able in the most part to claim the spectrum for nothing, paying no fees to government.
As the number of TV channels increased in the 1960s and 70s many countries started using Bands IV and V (470 - 862 MHz). The use of valuable spectrum for analog TV in such a way was not seen as inefficient at the time as it allowed most countries such as the UK and Australia to provide 5 national TV channels with minimal co-channel interference.
In the 1970s television programming began to be distributed to the home via satellite, first using analog technology and later digital. Offering a wide range of programming (particularly sport) it has remained popular since that time, particularly for those living in remote areas beyond the reach of terrestrial transmissions. Along with its counterpart, cable TV, it offers programming mainly on a subscription basis.
Such was the state of affairs in the cosy analog days of the 1950s to 2000s. But things were about to change first with digitization and advent of the mobile phone and later, the internet.
Digital terrestrial TV (DTTV) launched in the UK in 1998 and has subsequently replaced its analog counterpart in many countries resulting in a potential increase in the number of channels available to the viewer from 5 to over 100 (but sadly nowhere near 100 in Australia). At the same time spectrum use has been reduced.
Hooray for efficiency you may say. But the celebration (and terrestrial digital status quo) may prove to be short-lived.
Just as many countries are switching off their analog channels and converting to digital, there is more pressure on the valuable spectrum they use (gratis) from the demands of mobile services who have to pay serious money for the right to use spectrum. It turns out that the very frequencies used by DTTV are ideal for the provision of mobile services as they use antennas that can be comfortably accommodated in mobile devices and have a wavelength that can penetrate buildings relatively easily.
There are other factors at play that may well accelerate the move away from broadcast as the way of disseminating TV programs. As the bandwidth available to domestic internet users increases, the capability of video streaming in higher definitions also increases. When 50 or 100 Mb/s connections delivered by fibre to the home are commonplace, then multiple high definition video streams will be possible.
In the meantime (as at 2013) most homes in countries with at least an ADSL connection can receive video streaming at acceptable quality. This has allowed the creation of highly popular ‘catch-up’ services such as BBC iPlayer and ABC’s iView that allow users to view programs that have recently been broadcast on conventional broadcast channels.
This means that viewers can escape the tyranny of the broadcast schedule in a way more convenient than formerly possible through the use of VCRs (using magnetic tape) and DVRs (digital video recorders).
These ‘catch-up’ services herald a much more dramatic change to the television industry.
BBC Global iPlayer already offers limited programming from the massive BBC TV archive on a subscription basis for viewers in certain markets outside the UK. They are constrained in offering a wider range of content because of re-transmission rights negotiated with incumbent broadcasters in markets such as Australia.
Once the potential income from selling direct to the customer becomes significant, this will put pressure on long-held commercial arrangements with incumbent broadcasters such as ABC Australia. We will then see an inevitable decline in overseas product shown through conventional broadcasters.
In the non-public sector, players such as Netflix are commissioning big budget drama series such as ‘House of Cards’ for exclusive distribution through their subscription video streaming service. All episodes of a series are available simultaneously, freeing the consumer from the weekly episode paradigm so loved by conventional broadcasters.
So what will all this mean for the future of broadcast TV? Well there is one element missing in the path to digital consumption nirvana - ironically the TV itself. The typical TV setup in most homes is a hotch-potch of terrestrial, DVD/ Blueray player, DVR, cable, satellite etc. The addition of internet delivered TV via unappealing ‘smart’ apps on the TV itself or through yet another box with its own remote control cannot be a compelling prospect. The companies that provide an integrated solution and easy navigation of internet-provided programming will move things in the right direction and may prove pivotal.
The other major issue which will face those companies who seek to offer internet delivered TV is that of global distribution. The notion of making content available to different regions on a timetable set by the rights holders has been blown apart by the easy availability of pirated material. Viewers often have no alternative but illegal downloading when program providers can’t or won’t make their content available in a particular local market.
Issues of content rights, technical infrastructure and local representation all have to be resolved if rights holders want to minimize revenue leak through piracy. This will probably take many years to fully resolve.
Well what does this impending change mean to ‘conventional’ broadcasters? Players such as the BBC who already have a global presence are likely to transform themselves into world-wide providers of programming direct to consumers, most likely by subscription.
This may influence the way in which the BBC is funded for domestic programming so expect some tricky political footwork here. Some commercial networks such as Fox and HBO will no doubt do the same. I’m sure new players such as Netflix and others (don’t forget Apple Amazon and Google) will prosper in this new environment.
Once these changes become entrenched will we see conventional linear broadcast TV reduced to covering 'real-time' events such as News and Sport - or eventually disappear altogether? Maybe all 'TV' as we currently call it will be delivered over the internet whether over broadband fibre to the home as well as wirelessly to mobile devices.
Smaller players including Australian TV broadcasters face challenging times that could see the demise of some. The ABC will need to redirect its programming to focus on what nobody else may be able to provide - Australian content - if it is to remain relevant in this new world.
